Excellent stuff for unit 4 essays on advantages, disadvantages and issues surrounding the single currency.
Related: Another piece on costs & benefits of EU membership.....
With the European Parliament elections on the near horizon there is plenty of discussion about the merits and de-merits of continued UK membership of the European Union.
The Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) has just launched a new report in its series of CEP Policy Analyses: ‘Brexit or Fixit? The Trade and Welfare Effects of Leaving the European Union’ by Gianmarco Ottaviano, Joao Paulo Pessoa, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Here are their main findings:
- Over half of all UK exports go to the rest of the European Union (EU) – this corresponds to almost 15% of national income (GDP)
- One cost of the UK leaving the EU (‘Brexit’) would be less trade with the EU because of higher tariff and non-tariff barriers today and reduced benefits from lower trade costs in the future. A benefit of leaving would be a lower net fiscal contribution.
- We consider a pessimistic scenario where the UK suffers some formal increase in trade costs compared with an optimistic one where it does not. A conventional calculation from a quantitative trade model produces income losses of around 3.1% of GDP (£50 billion) in the pessimistic case or 1.1% in the optimistic case (£18 billion).
- When we factor in more realistic dynamic losses from lower productivity growth, a conservative estimate would double losses to 2.2% of GDP even in the most optimistic case. In the pessimistic case, there would be income falls of 6.3% to 9.5% of GDP, a loss of a similar size to that resulting from the global financial crisis of 2008/09.
- There are further effects on immigration, foreign investment and regulations. Although harder to quantify, Brexit is also likely, on balance, to depress income through these channels.
- Our current assessment is that leaving the EU would be likely to impose substantial costs on the UK economy and would be a very risky gamble.
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